Mnet :: NEWSWEEK POLL: The Stalemate Continues

NEW YORK, March 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island have revived her near-dead campaign and brought her into a statistical dead heat with Sen. Barack Obama among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a new national Newsweek Poll. The survey found that Clinton has erased the once-commanding lead that Obama held in most national polls following his 11 straight victories in February's primaries and caucuses. Obama is the favored nominee among 45 percent of Democrats, compared with 44 percent for Clinton, according to the poll, which was based on telephone interviews with 1,215 registered voters March 5-6.

The poll also found that Democratic voters are ready to rally around the candidate they trust most to improve the economy, amid fears of a recession. But neither candidate has been able to lock up that issue, or many others, and the vast majority (69 percent) of Democratic voters now support the idea of a "dream ticket" -- leaving aside the crucial question of who runs on top.

What's striking is that the fundamentals remain largely the same. Obama gets overwhelming support from blacks (80 percent to 10 percent), those under 40 (60 percent to 35 percent) and voters who have graduated from college (50 percent to 41 percent); Hillary wins the majority of whites (53 percent to 35 percent), voters over 60 (51 percent to 33 percent) and those who have a high- school education or less (48 percent to 38 percent). Along gender lines, Obama wins male voters by a 10-point margin (50 percent to 40 percent), while Clinton retains her lead with female voters (46 percent to 40 percent).

Close to half (47 percent) of Democrats and Democratic leanders said that "the economy and jobs" would determine their ballot, but voters are split on which candidate they trust more on this topic (Obama, 43 percent; Clinton, 42 percent). Another quarter of voters cited health care, and 16 percent said the Iraq War. While the ability to bring about change still matters most to Democrats (30 percent of respondents), experience is gaining ground, with 21 percent citing it as the quality they covet most in a candidate. That's up from 15 percent in the last Newsweek Poll in February.

As the candidate running hardest on the platform of experience, Clinton was seen by a wide margin (61 percent to 22 percent) as the candidate possessing that quality. Obama, meanwhile, retained his ironclad aura as an agent of change: he holds an 8-point margin (47 percent to 39 percent) over Clinton as the candidate that Democratic voters believe is most able to "bring about the changes this country needs." On the issue of preparedness for office, more Democratic voters believe Clinton's plan for mending the nation is better than Obama's (45 percent to 37 percent). But by a 41-point margin the same voters laud Obama as the candidate who can inspire the country. Worse for Clinton, 58 percent of Democrats seemed to value aura over argument when they said that the ability to inspire people is more important than having a winning plan of action. And the Illinois senator is seen by most Democrats as the candidate who can bring people together (53 percent to 32 percent for Clinton).

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, may have already benefited from the Democratic infighting. Many Democrats in the Newsweek Poll said that they would back McCain if their favorite candidate were not the nominee. Perhaps as a result, each candidate remains in a statistical tie with the former POW in a mock November match up. In a test election there Obama beat McCain 46 percent to 45 percent, and Clinton triumphed 48 percent to 46 percent.

McCain faces obstacles on several fronts. He would be the oldest person to start a first term as president, and three in 10 survey respondents think he is too old for the job. McCain is also in danger of overplaying the endorsement he received this week from President George W. Bush. Campaigning side by side with the unpopular president could hurt McCain's chances; the president's approval rating hovers around 30 percent. Even among Republicans, almost a third (32 percent) of survey respondents said they disapprove of the job Bush is doing. Finally, McCain's support of the Iraq War may backfire. Although a slightly greater number of voters believe that things in Iraq are getting better (29 percent) rather than worse (25 percent) that could swing quickly if U.S. casualties flare.

The rest of the poll results were mixed. They suggested that Clinton's ominous "3 a.m. phone call" ad benefited her campaign. Almost half (45 percent) of Democrats said they would trust Clinton to answer the red phone in the wee hours, while only a third felt that way about Obama. Similarly, on the issue of national security, almost half (47 percent) of the Democratic base said that they trust Clinton to protect the country; only a third feel the same about Obama.

But it's not clear how much these sentiments will matter at the ballot box: just 4 percent of Democrats overall, and 4 percent of Clinton's supporters, name terrorism as their top issue. When all voters were asked which of the three candidates they would most trust to take a 3 a.m. call, the largest number pointed to McCain (45 percent), followed by Clinton (27 percent) and Obama (18 percent). Almost a fifth of Clinton's supporters say that they would trust McCain more to take the call.

Looking ahead, 58 percent of Democratic voters, and 44 percent of Clinton backers, believe she will "go negative" if she wins her party's nomination. In contrast, only 24 percent of Obama supporters expect him to take the low road- which suggests that his backers could penalize him for playing dirty.

The poll also shows that Clinton remains a divisive figure: a full 40 percent of registered voters hold an unfavorable opinion of her, compared with 35 percent for McCain and only 28 percent for Obama. On Clinton's contention that the media is harder on her, 42 percent of Democrats agree. Even among Obama supporters, a full third believe their candidate has had an easier time with journalists.

While Clinton has regained support among national Democrats, Obama maintains the lead among pledged delegates to the party's convention, with 1,366 versus Clinton's 1,227, according to the tally by NBC News. Both fall short of the 2,025 delegates required to secure the nomination. But the national sentiment in the latest Newsweek Poll could reflect shifting attitudes of voters in upcoming primaries, including the next big prize, Pennsylvania.

Should neither Clinton nor Obama secure enough delegates to win the nomination (a scenario that looks increasingly likely), 43 percent of Democrats said they would prefer that the candidate trailing in the delegate count concede the nomination, while 42 percent think super delegates should choose the nominee. Should the ball end up in the superdelegates' court, most respondents (42 percent) think they should choose the best-qualified nominee in their judgment, while 38 percent believe they should choose the person with the popular vote lead.

Story: http://www.newsweek.com/id/119953

Poll Numbers: http://www.newsweek.com/id/119957

Newsweek Poll

The Democratic Presidential Race

Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results

(3/7/08)

N = 1,215 registered voters screened from 1,364 adults, 18+

Margin of error: plus or minus 3.5

Interviewing dates: 3/5-6/08

N = 573 Registered Democrats and Democratic leaners (MOE: plus or minus 5)

Notes: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density.

Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. Sample size and margins of error for these subgroups are included in a separate methodology statement.

An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.

READ INTRO TO Q1ab-Q2ab TO ALL RVs: Now I'm going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in this year's presidential election. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election were being held TODAY.

Questions 1a/b and 2a/b rotated.

1a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and

John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be

more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE

ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or

McCain, the Republican?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Total Obama Total McCain Undec./Other

Current Total 46 45 9 =100

Rep/Lean Rep 10 86 4 =100

Dem/Lean Dem 77 14 9 =100

Clinton supporters 61 25 14 =100

Obama supporters 96 2 2 =100

Trends

6/20-21/07 51 41 8 =100

5/2-3/07 52 39 9 =100

2/28-3/1/07 45 43 12 =100

1/24-25/07 48 42 10 =100

1/17-18/07 46 44 10 =100

12/6-7/06 43 45 12 =100

2a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and

John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be

more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE

ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat;

or McCain, the Republican?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Total Total

Clinton McCain Undec./Other

Current Total 48 46 6 =100

Rep/Lean Rep 11 86 3 =100

Dem/Lean Dem 80 14 6 =100

Clinton supporters 94 6 * =100

Obama supporters 71 20 9 =100

Trends

6/20-21/07 50 45 5 =100

5/2-3/07 50 44 6 =100

2/28-3/1/07 47 46 7 =100

1/24-25/07 50 44 6 =100

1/17-18/07 48 47 5 =100

12/6-7/06 50 43 7 =100

Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document).

3. Who would you MOST like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's

presidential candidate this year ... . Hillary Clinton (or) Barack

Obama? (Choices Rotated)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Obama Clinton Undec/Other

Current Total 45 44 11 =100

Democrat 44 44 12 =100

Independent/Other 46 42 12 =100

Male 50 40 10 =100

Female 41 46 13 =100

White 35 53 12 =100

Black 80 10 10 =100

18-39 60 35 5 =100

40-59 38 47 15 =100

60+ 33 51 16 =100

College grad. 50 41 9 =100

Some college 50 38 12 =100

No college 38 48 14 =100

Red states 37 50 13 =100

Blue states 51 39 10 =100

Trend (Total)

2/6-7/08 42 41 17 =100

4. Do you support ... (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q3) STRONGLY or only

moderately?

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Strength of Support

Obama Clinton

Strong 70 68

Not Strong 30 32

100 100

5. Which ONE of the following is the MOST important reason that you

support ... (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q3)? (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-6)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO CHOSE CLINTON OR OBAMA

Total Clinton Obama 2/6-7/08

30 11 49 Can bring about needed change 30

21 41 1 Experience 15

14 13 15 Cares about people like you 13

14 15 13 Leadership ability 18

11 11 12 Positions on issues 14

5 3 7 Can win in November 6

2 3 1 Other/None of these (VOL.) 3

3 3 2 Don't know 1

100 100 100 100

6. In deciding which Democratic presidential candidate to support this

year, which ONE of the following issues is most important to

you...(READ AND ROTATE 1-5)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama 2/6-7/08

47 50 44 The economy and jobs 46

24 27 19 Health care 21

16 13 21 Iraq 17

6 3 10 The environment and global warming 8

4 4 4 Terrorism and national security 5

1 1 0 Other/None of these (VOL.) 1

2 2 2 Don't know 2

100 100 100 100

7. We'd like your overall opinion of some people in politics today. As I

read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable

opinion of this person -- or if you had never heard of them before this

interview. What about ... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE) (Do you have a

favorable or unfavorable opinion of him/her?)

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Never Can't

Favorable Unfavorable heard of rate/DK

a. Hillary Clinton

Current Total 56 40 * 4 =100

Rep/Lean Rep 23 73 0 4 =100

Dem/Lean Dem 83 14 * 3 =100

Clinton supporters 99 1 * * =100

Obama supporters 72 26 0 2 =100

Trends (Total RVs)

7/2-3/07 55 38 1 6 =100

5/11-12/06 51 45 1 3 =100

b. Barack Obama

Current Total 61 28 1 10 =100

Rep/Lean Rep 40 47 1 12 =100

Dem/Lean Dem 79 14 1 6 =100

Clinton supporters 63 28 1 8 =100

Obama supporters 98 1 0 1 =100

Trends (Total RVs)

7/2-3/07 56 19 11 14 =100

5/11-12/06 34 10 46 10 =100

c. John McCain

Current Total 55 35 1 9 =100

d. George W. Bush

Current Total 33 61 1 5 =100

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his

job as president?

Approve Disapprove DK

Current Total 30 61 9 =100

Trends (1)

2/6-7/08 30 60 10 =100

8/1-2/07 29 63 8 =100

7/11-12/07 29 64 7 =100

7/2-3/07 26 65 9 =100

6/18-19/07 26 65 9 =100

5/2-3/07 28 64 8 =100

3/28-29/07 33 60 7 =100

3/14-15/07 30 60 10 =100

2/28-3/1/07 31 61 8 =100

1/24-25/07 30 64 6 =100

1/17-18/07 31 62 7 =100

12/6-7/06 32 60 8 =100

11/9-10/06 31 63 6 =100

11/2-3/06 35 56 9 =100

10/26-27/06 37 53 10 =100

10/19-20/06 35 57 8 =100

10/5-6/06 33 59 8 =100

8/24-25/06 36 56 8 =100

8/10-11/06 38 55 7 =100

5/11-12/06 35 59 6 =100

3/16-17/06 36 58 6 =100

11/10-11/05 36 58 6 =100

9/29-30/05 40 53 7 =100

9/8-9/05 38 55 7 =100

8/2-4/05 42 51 7 =100

3/17-18/05 45 48 7 =100

2/3-4/05 50 42 8 =100

12/2-3/04 49 44 7 =100

10/27-29/04 46 47 7 =100

10/14-15/04 47 46 7 =100

9/30-10/2/04 46 48 6 =100

9/9-10/04 48 44 8 =100

9/2-3/04 52 41 7 =100

7/29-30/04 45 49 6 =100

7/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100

5/13-14/04 42 52 6 =100

4/8-9/04 49 45 6 =100

3/18-19/04 48 44 8 =100

2/5-6/04 48 45 7 =100

1/22-23/04 50 44 6 =100

1/8-9/04 54 41 5 =100

12/18-19/03 54 38 8 =100

11/6-7/03 52 40 8 =100

8/21-22/03 53 36 11 =100

5/29-30/03 61 28 11 =100

(1) Full trendline from 1/04 to present; earlier trends selected. Approval

figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.

9. On the subject of Iraq ... All in all, do you think the situation in

Iraq is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Current 10/31-11/1/07 8/1-2/07(2)

29 Getting better 26 16

25 Getting worse 29 41

43 About the same 42 38

3 Don't know 3 5

100 100 100

(2) 8/1-2/07 trend results based on total adults.

10. Now I have a few more questions about the Democratic presidential

candidates. Regardless of which candidate you may support, please

tell me if you think each of the following statements BEST describes

Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. (First,) What about ... (READ AND

RANDOMIZE) (Does this statement best describe Hillary Clinton or

Barack Obama?)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Both

Clinton Obama equally Neither DK

a. Can bring about the changes

this country needs

Current Total 39 47 8 3 3 =100

Trend

2/6-7/08 38 44 11 2 5 =100

b. Has the right experience for

the job of president

Current Total 61 22 9 5 3 =100

Trend

2/6-7/08 62 21 9 4 4 =100

c. Can bring the country together

Current Total 32 53 9 3 3 =100

Trend

2/6-7/08 34 50 8 3 5 =100

d. Inspires and excites people

Current Total 23 64 10 1 2 =100

Trend

2/6-7/08 25 63 8 2 2 =100

e. Is most likely to defeat John

McCain in November (3)

Current Total 38 44 9 2 7 =100

Trend

2/6-7/08 43 38 8 1 10 =100

f. Has the better plan for solving

our country's problems

Current Total 45 37 8 3 7 =100

(3) Trend wording read, "Is most likely to win in November."

11. Which ONE of the following do you think is the more important quality

for the next president to have ... ? (READ AND ROTATE 1-2)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama

58 41 74 Ability to inspire and bring people together to

solve the country's problems (or)

39 56 24 Having a specific plan for solving our country's

problems (or)

3 3 2 Don't know

100 100 100

12. Regardless of which candidate you may support, please tell me if you

would trust Hillary Clinton more or Barack Obama more to do each of

the following ... (First,) Which would you trust more ... (READ AND

RANDOMIZE) (Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama)?

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

(Vol.) (Vol.)

Clinton Obama Both Neither DK

a. To improve the economy and job

situation

Current Total 42 43 9 2 4 =100

b. To deal with the situation in

Iraq

Current Total 45 40 9 2 4 =100

c. To protect the country from

terrorism

Current Total 47 33 13 3 4 =100

d. To make health care more

affordable and accessible

Current Total 51 35 8 3 3 =100

e. To answer an urgent 3AM phone

call in the White

House about a national security

crisis

Current Total 45 33 15 3 4 =100

13. Putting aside the issue of which would be the presidential and vice

presidential candidate, in general, would you personally like to see

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton run together on the national

Democratic ticket this fall, or not?

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama

69 72 67 Yes, would

27 24 30 No, would not

4 4 3 Don't know

100 100 100

14. If nominated, which Democratic presidential candidate - Hillary

Clinton or Barack Obama - do you think would be more likely to engage

in mudslinging and negative campaigning in the fall campaign against

Republican John McCain?

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama

58 44 74 Hillary Clinton

18 24 17 Barack Obama

9 12 2 Both equally (VOL.)

5 7 3 Neither (VOL.)

10 13 4 Don't know

100 100 100

15. Suppose that after all the votes in the Democratic primaries and

caucuses have been counted, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama

has enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination. Which of the

following would you most prefer ... (READ AND ROTATE OPTIONS 1-2)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama

43 36 51 That the candidate trailing in delegates drop out of

the race and concede the nomination to their opponent

(or)

42 50 39 That the Democratic elected officials and party

leaders who are the "super delegates"

decide which candidate becomes the party's nominee

(or)

15 14 10 Don't know

100 100 100

16. Suppose that, in the end, the Democratic super delegates decide

whether Clinton or Obama is the party's presidential nominee. Which

the following ways would you MOST like to see them choose between the

candidates? Should the super delegates ... (READ)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama

38 34 41 Choose the candidate who won the biggest share of the

POPULAR VOTE in primaries

and caucuses across the country, or

14 6 23 Choose the candidate who won the most DELEGATES in

the primaries and caucuses, or

42 55 31 Choose the candidate who is BEST QUALIFIED to be the

nominee in their judgment?

6 5 5 Don't know

100 100 100

17. What if Barack Obama wins the most popular vote and the most delegates

from the primaries and caucuses but Hillary Clinton is selected as the

nominee by the super delegates? Do you think the Democratic Party

leadership would be seen as racially biased in denying the nomination

to an African-American candidate, or don't you think it would be seen

this way?

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama Whites Blacks

30 25 37 26 47 Yes, would be seen as racially biased

59 65 53 64 42 No, would not

11 10 10 10 11 Don't know

100 100 100 100 100

18. Now thinking about the way the news media has covered the Democratic

presidential race this year, in general, do you think media coverage

has been ... (READ)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total Clinton Obama

42 56 33 More critical of Hillary Clinton,

10 6 16 More critical of Barack Obama, or

43 34 46 Has NOT been more critical of one candidate than

another?

5 4 5 Don't know

100 100 100

19. Which one of the following would you trust most to answer an urgent

3AM phone call in the White House about a national security crisis?

(READ AND RANDOMIZE)

Based on Registered Voters

Clinton Rep/ Dem/

Total Obama Ln Rep Ln Dem

45 18 13 81 17 John McCain

27 68 20 9 42 Hillary Clinton

18 4 62 4 31 Barack Obama

10 10 5 6 10 Don't know

100 100 100 100 100

20. At age 71, do you think John McCain is too old to serve effectively as

president, or not?

Based on Registered Voters

Current 1/25-26/96(4)

30 37 Yes, too old

67 60 No, not too old

3 3 Don't know

100 100

D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in

politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or

Independent?

D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the

Democratic Party?

(4) Trend asked about Bob Dole.

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Dem/

Total Ln Dem

27 0 Republican

38 75 Democrat

32 22 Independent

2 2 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.)

* * Other party (VOL.)

1 1 Don't know

100 100

40 Total Republican/Lean Republican

50 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic

END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation. SOURCE Newsweek

-0- 03/08/2008

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