New research findings indicate that climate-related sea level rise is
likely to put 80 percent of Nigeria's coastline at risk of being swept away by
the Atlantic Ocean.

LAGOS, NIGERIA (NOVEMBER 17, 2008) REUTERS -
Millions of people in Nigeria could be displaced by rising sea
levels in the next half century, as ocean surges submerge some of Africa's
most expensive real estate and its poorest slums, scientists say.

Africa's most populous nation, stretching from the southern fringe of
the Sahara to the Gulf of Guinea, could come under triple attack from climate
change as the desert encroaches on its northern pastures, rainfall erodes
farmland in its eastern Niger Delta, and the Atlantic floods its southern
coast.

But the greatest concern is the sprawling commercial capital Lagos, one
of the fastest growing cities in the world, whose series of creeks and lagoons
lie dangerously close to sea level.

"Nigeria would be under a triple attack from global climate change
if you look at it from a geographical point of view. The South, where we are
at present, is severely at risk from flooding by increased sea level. As the
temperature rises and the glaciers melt, more sea water is added and therefore
the lowland areas of Lagos will be soon be more or less permanently submerged.
In the East, we now see very clearly, that the increased rainfall leads
already strongly to (soil) erosion which wipes out communities and their
farms. And in the North, we have long seen desertification. The desert is
encroaching and the rain fall is diminishing," said Stefan Cramer,
Nigeria director of Germany's Heinrich Boll Foundation think-tank and an
advisor to the Nigerian government on climate change.

Speaking at the launch this week of a Nigerian documentary on climate
change, Emmanuel Obot, executive director of the Nigerian Conservation
Foundation, predicted sea levels would rise by one metre over the next 50
years or so.

"If things go the way they are going now, I suspect strongly that
we don't have up to 50 years. From the models we have run in my organisation,
we don't have up to 50 years before this happens," he said.

Lagos state government has been battling to reinforce the long sand
spits such as Bar Beach -- whose wooden shacks are a favourite hangout for
touts and hustlers known as "Area Boys" -- which protect the mouth
of the main lagoon from the Atlantic.
But Francis Adesina, a geography professor at Nigeria's Obafemi Awolowo
University, said the effect would be limited and little was being done in
terms of planning to adjust to the impact the rising levels would have on
various sectors of the economy.

"The anticipated effects are likely to be enormous, particularly
in the area of agriculture, forestry and water resources. Of course we are
expecting that it is going to have a lot of effect on human settlements, on
living in urban areas particularly. But we think that some of the most
vulnerable sectors are agriculture, forestry and water resources,"
Adesina said.

Nigeria's economic growth has been among the fastest in Africa in
recent years, drawing rural and immigrant labourers to the factories and docks
of Lagos, while white collar workers flock to its banks and blue-chip
firms.

Demand for housing has exploded at both ends of the market. Shanty
towns where wooden huts perch on stilts have grown into the lagoon while
engineers reclaim land to build multi-million dollar villas and apartments on
the exclusive Lekki peninsula.

"Most of the construction here in Lekki is bound to fail because
it is built on sand, and this sand has never been properly consolidated. So
coastal erosion and sea level rise will wipe out much of the property values,
particularly in Lekki peninsula. I think it is a fallacy to concentrate so
much on the Lekki peninsula, on the Lekki access for urban development,"
Cramer added.

The creators of "Global Warming: Nigeria Under Attack" plan
to show the documentary in schools and churches around Nigeria.
With scenes of villagers sitting outside mud huts discussing using less
wood in their cooking, or farmers showing crops swept away by flooding, the
aim is to tailor the message of films like Al Gore's "An Inconvenient
Truth" to an African audience.

"The issue is what caused global warming? Nigeria did not cause
global warming. In fact the whole of the west African continent has
contributed very very little to the carbon emission. Yet, we on the coast
here, in Lagos, could pay the highest price for it and it is totally
unfair," said Desmond Majekodunmi, who produced the film.

Scientists predict heavier rains and higher sea levels could wipe out
much of Bayelsa, one of three main states in the Niger Delta, a vast network
of mangrove creeks home to isolated villages and to Africa's biggest oil and
gas industry.

Industry installations built on shallow swampland can be raised to
protect them but villagers will be defenceless.