Five Futures For Pakistan
Author: Sohail Inayatullah

In this essay, I outline Five futures for Pakistan: (1) the
Pendulum continues forever, (2) Collapse, (3) Joining Chindia,
(4) the Great Game, and (5) a South Asian Confederation. The
most familiar and likely are based on the pendulum of rule by
the military and rule by landlord/politicians. However, what is
needed is to move from the more likely and less desirable
futures to a process of anticipatory democracy where the
citizens of Pakistan consider, create and commit to building
their preferred future.

DEEP STRUCTURES AND ARCHETYPES

While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto certainly plunged
Pakistan into one of its works crisis in decades, the recent
successful electionsi appear to have brought hope back again.
The extremist parties did poorly, and even with a low turn out
and election violence, it appears that the latest cycle of
military rule is over. But how long will this cycle last?

I ask this question as Syed Abidi has made the observation that
Pakistan's political system can best be understood as a pendulum
between civilian rule and military rule. There have been six
such swings, with the seventh toward civilian rule beginning in
2008.

These swings occur because of the deep archetypes in Pakistan's
politics. There are four archetypes in Pakistan politics – the
general and military rule, the people and peoples' power that
overthrows the ruler, the politician-feudal lord, and the
bureaucrat who ensures smooth transitions between all these
types. Each one of these archetypes has two sides – the general
can be protective and moral (the enlightened despot) or can be
amoral, staying too long, clinging to power, assaulting human
rights and using religion or strategy to stay in power. The
feudal lord can equally be protective or can stay too long, and
use his or her power for personal gain. The citizen can be
chaotic or can bring social capital to the nation. The
bureaucracy can be transparent and use their power to create a
productive society (green tape) or it can slow the wheels of the
nation, using time, money and symbolic power to hold the nation
back (red tape).

Given these patterns, what can we say about Pakistan's futures.
Five are currently possible.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

1.The pendulum continues forever. This would mean that after
this particular civilian cycle, there will be another military
coup in 7-10 years. Politicians will have some luck in ridding
Pakistan of extremist fundamentalists, but old scores between
the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League or between the PPP and
the military will still need to be settled. Issues of justice
and revenge will continue and just as Pakistan's economy is
about to take off, another crisis will set in. Citizens will
rally but then when they see no real change will become
despondent. "Nothing is possible here," or a similar
catch-phrase will be the inner story. Globalization will not go
away but the politics would swing between growth and equity.

2. Collapse – this is the most feared scenario for all,
particularly in the West. Civil war in Pakistan (the provinces
going their own way), the inability to stop jihadism, Al Qa'ida
or their friends finding some nukes, not to mention the global
challenges of climate change, all lead to a slow decline
destined for collapse. And if the challenge from the Pakistani
and Afghani Taliban is resolved, the frontline will switch to
half-century old war in. Capital flies away, economic
development slows down and Pakistan becomes a nation of
competing tribes. Women in this future are particularly
vulnerable as the battle between religious and secularists
throughout the Islamic (Arab influenced world) is fought over
the "body" of the female. Is she a person unto herself or does
the strong male (feudal lord, ruler, mullah) need to protect and
control. In the collapse, chaos would reign. Over time, and
perhaps even quite quickly, a strong military leader is likely
to rise (the Napoleon scenario), but can the great leader unite
all the tribes (the challenge facing Afghanistan today)?

3. Joining Chindia. With India likely to move into the ranks of
the G-8 by 2020, gaining a permanent UN Security Council
Position, Pakistan's only hope is to link in every possible way
with India and China – or Chindia. Certainly Pakistan will favor
the China part of the amazing rise, but in any case, in this
future, economic growth is far more important than ideological
struggles. To move in this direction, the Singapore or Malaysian
model may be adopted. This model is characterized by a clear
vision of the future, transparency; break up of the feudal
system, limited democracy (One party rule) and creatively
finding a niche role in the global economy, and then using that
to springboard to becoming a global player. However, the India
example shows that economic rise is possible outside the East
Asian model. In any case, this future is hopeful but requires
investment in infrastructure and a favoring of globalized
capitalism. Instead of lamenting the colonial past, in this
Chindia future, Pakistan creates its own transnational
corporations. Politics moves from focusing on old wrongs
(Kashmir, for example) to desired futures. Instead of Chindia,
Chindistan is created.

4. The fourth scenario is the Great Game.vi Pakistan remains a
pawn, moved around for the strategic and ideological purposes of
the great powers. Whether in proxy wars against the Russians or
against 9/11 jihadis or whoever may be next, Pakistan's capacity
to influence its future is low or non-existent. At best, it can
only rent out its military, or territory, for others' battles.
In this future (as in the current present), the rental receipts
do not lead to even development –they merely enrich those
getting the rent, generally the military. The national game
becomes not how to transform the great game but how to get a
piece of the action, legitimately or illegitimately. Those not
part of the money game sing songs of grand conspiracies. These
songs take away agency. While Pakistan has a dependency
relationship with the rest of the world, citizens have a
dependency – child/adult – relationship with the government,
expecting it to solve each and every problem, without taking
responsibility for their own actions and blaming the government
when it fails. At the collective level, Pakistan remains
rudderless, evoking the words of the founder, but unable to
follow through with action.

5. A wiser South-Asian confederation. The challenges Pakistan
faces are similar to what other countries in the region face –
religious extremism, climate change, poverty, corruption, deep
inequity, used futures and less than helpful archetypes – the
only way forward is towards an EU model of slow but inevitable
integration. While this may seem too positive and far away, it
is not impossible. Each country needs the help of others to
solve their problems. None can go it alone, and each can learn
from the Other. This requires learning, peace and mediation
skills in all schools; moving toward the sustainability
development agenda; developing agreements in security, water,
and energy to begin with; and a focus on the desired future and
not on past injustices. Gender equity and systemic and deep
cultural levels is foundational for this future. This future
also requires an archetype that is neither the male general nor
feudal lord nor the rebellious teenager, but the wise person,
perhaps the Globo sapiens. Fortunately, the south Asian
tradition is steeped with wisdom. Can this imagination be drawn
on to create a different future? Already in Pakistan, there are
hundreds of groups and thousands of individuals working on this
vision. What is needed is systemic support for this future, and
a move away from focusing on past injustices.

ANTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY

If an alternative future for Pakistan is not created, the
pendulum will continue with collapse always being in the
background. But this futures creation process cannot be done
from above via a planning commission; rather, it must be part of
a broader process of anticipatory democracy – citizens, leaders
and researchers mapping out alternative scenarios, then
analyzing the benefits and costs of each future, visioning the
desired, mediating conflicts between the desired, and then
creating action learning processes to realize the desired.
Anticipatory democracy thus can deepen electoral democracy,
bringing focus not just to futures Pakistanis do not wish for
but more so to those that are desirable.


About The Author: Sohail Inayatullah is a futurist and
political scientist based in Australia. You can read more of his
articles at his website http://www.metafuture.org , where you
will also find a longer version of this article with notes and
references.