Some Views on Iraq Have Not Changed, but Confidence in Future of Iraq Falls to
New Low Among U.S. Adults, According to Latest Harris Poll
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Nov. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Harris Polls have measured many different attitudes to, beliefs about, expectations for, and perceptions of Iraq, the use of U.S. troops and the insurgency. We have asked about the origins of the war, alleged links to Al Qaeda, weapons of mass destruction, intelligence, and the decision made by President Bush to invade Iraq. We have asked about how things are going for American troops and for the Iraqis. This new Harris Poll revisits a few of these issues and measures changes -- or the lack of change -- since the same questions were asked three months ago.
The one substantial change since August is a decline in confidence that "Iraq will be successful in developing a democratic and reasonably stable government." Three months ago, 40 percent of U.S. adults were confident that this would happen. Now only 32 percent are confident that this will happen. This is important for several reasons, including the claims that the invasion would help to bring democracy to Iraq, and that this would spread to other countries in the Middle East.
This decline in confidence may, however, be less surprising -- given ongoing events in Iraq -- than the stability, or lack of change, in public opinion on some other key issues.
These are the results of a nationwide telephone poll of 1,011 U.S. adults surveyed by Harris Interactive(R) between November 8 and 13, 2005.
Results which show little or no change include:
* The substantial 63 to 35 percent majority who favor "bringing most of
our troops home in the next year" is virtually the same as the majority
who favored this in both June and August 2005.
* The 41 percent of all adults who believe that the "insurgents are being
contained by security forces" is virtually the same as those who
believed this in June and August.
* Majorities, little changed since June and August, continue to believe
that:
-- The "overall life for Iraqis" is getting better (68%)
-- The "overall infrastructure of Iraq" is getting better (62%), and
that
-- The "security of Iraqi civilians" is getting better (52%).
These relatively upbeat perceptions may bring some comfort to the White House, at a time when it needs all the good news it can get.
TABLE 1
KEEP LARGE NUMBER OF U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ OR BRING MOST HOME IN NEXT YEAR
"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"
Base: All Adults
Oct. Feb. April June Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
% % % % % % % %
Favor
keeping
a large
number
of U.S.
troops in
Iraq until
there is a
stable
government
there 46 45 42 39 40 38 47 50
Favor
bringing
most of our
troops home
in the next
year 47 51 51 56 54 54 50 47
Not sure/
Refused 7 4 8 6 5 7 3 2
Feb. Apr. June Aug. NOW
2005 2005 2005 2005
% % % % %
Favor keeping
a large number
of U.S. troops
in Iraq until
there is a
stable government
there 39 40 33 36 35
Favor bringing
most of our
troops home in
the next year 59 60 63 61 63
Not sure/Refused 1 * 4 4 3
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.
TABLE 2
CONFIDENCE IN IRAQ TO DEVELOP STABLE AND DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT
"Are you confident that Iraq will be successful in developing a stable and
reasonably democratic government?"
Base: All Adults
Apr. June Aug. NOW
2005 2005 2005
% % % %
Yes 43 41 40 32
No 55 51 56 61
Not sure/Refused 2 9 4 7
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.
TABLE 3
INSURGENTS IN IRAQ CONTAINED OR NOT "Do you believe the insurgents in Iraq are being contained by security forces
or are they getting the upper hand?"
Base: All Adults
June Aug. NOW
2005 2005
% % %
Insurgents are being contained
by security forces 42 39 41
Insurgents are getting the upper
hand 41 50 44
Not sure/Refused 18 11 14
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding
TABLE 4
LIFE IN IRAQ GETTING BETTER OR WORSE "For each of the following, please indicate whether you feel the situation is
getting better or worse."
Base: All Adults
Much Somewhat Somewhat Much Not Sure/
Better Better Worse Worse Refused
Overall life for
Iraqis % 14 54 16 12 5
Overall
infrastructure
of Iraq % 10 51 19 12 8
Security of Iraqi
civilians % 11 41 27 16 5
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding
TABLE 5
LIFE IN IRAQ GETTING BETTER OR WORSE - TRENDS
("Not sures" and refused excluded) "For each of the following, please indicate whether you feel the situation is
getting much better, somewhat better, somewhat worse or much worse."
Base: All Adults
2005
June August NOW
% % %
Overall life for Iraqis
Better 68 65 68
Worse 27 31 28
Overall Infrastructure for Iraqis
Better 61 57 62
Worse 29 35 30
Security of Iraqi civilians
Better 56 51 52
Worse 38 46 43
Note: Better is net of "much better" or "somewhat better"; Worse is net of "somewhat worse" or "much worse."
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between November 8 and 13, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,011 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J25890B
Q460, Q462, Q476, Q480
The Harris Poll(R) #84, November 22, 2005
By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll(R), Harris Interactive.
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com), based in Rochester, New York, is the 13th largest and the fastest-growing market research firm in the world, most widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for its pioneering leadership in the online market research industry. Long recognized by its clients for delivering insights that enable confident business decisions, the Company blends the science of innovative research with the art of strategic consulting to deliver knowledge that leads to measurable and enduring value.
Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe) and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris in Paris, France (http://www.novatris.com), and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. EOE M/F/D/V
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Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172
Harris Interactive Inc. 11/05 SOURCE Harris Interactive
-0- 11/22/2005
/CONTACT: Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo, +1-585-214-7172, both of Harris Interactive/
/Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com /
