Internet - A Medium or a Message? (Part XVIII )

By Sam Vaknin
Author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited"

These essays were published by the Israeli (Hebrew) edition of PC
Magazine back in 1996, when the Internet was in its formative epoch.
I have left them essentially unchanged, except for a few minor
errata I corrected. I find time travel fascinating. It is
interesting to recall the mainstream view, ten years ago, about the
Internet, its goals, its role, and its future. So, here goes:

Cease-Fire

The cessation of hostilities between the Internet and some off-the-
shelf software applications heralds the commencement of the
integration between the desktop computer and the Net. This is a
small step for the user - and a big one for humanity. The animosity
which prevailed until recently between the UNIX systems and the HTML
language and between most of the standard applications (headed by
the Word Processors) - has officially ended with the introduction of
Office 97 which incorporates full HTML capabilities. With the Office
2000 products, the distinctions between a web computing environment
and a PC computing one - have all but vanished. Browsers can replace
operating systems, word processors can browse, download and upload -
the PC has finally been entirely absorbed by its offspring, the
internet.

The Portable Document Format (PDF) enables the user to work the
Internet off-line. In other words: text files will be loaded to word
processors and edited off-line. The same applies to other types of
files (audio, video).

Downloading time will be speeded up (today, it takes so long to
download an audio or video file that, many times, it is
impracticable).

This is not a trivial matter. The ability to switch between on-line
and off-line states and to continue the work, uninterrupted - this
ability means the integration of the PC in the Internet.

There are two competing views concerning the future of computer
hardware and both of them acknowledge the importance of the Internet.

Bill Gates - Microsoft's legendary boss - says that the PC will
continue to advance and strengthen its processing and computing
powers. The Internet will be just another tool available through
telecommunications, rather than through the ownership of hard copies
of software and data. The Internet is perceived to be a tremendous
external database, available for processing by tomorrow's desktops.
This view is lately being gradually reversed in view of the
incredible vitality and powers of the Internet.

Gates is converging on the worldview held by Sun Microsystems.

The future desktop will be a terminal, albeit powerful and with
considerable processing, computing and communications capabilities.
The name of the game will be the Internet itself. The terminal will
access Internet databases (containing raw or processed data) and
satisfy its information needs.

This terminal - equipped with languages the likes of Java - will get
into libraries of software applications. It will make use of
components of different applications as the needs arise. When
finished using the component, the terminal will "return" it to the
virtual "shelf" until the next time it is needed.

This will minimize memory resources in the desktop.

The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle.

Tomorrow's computer will be a home entertainment centre. No consumer
will accept total dependence on telecommunications and on the Net.
They will all ask for processing and computing powers at their
fingertips, a-la Bill Gates.

But tomorrow's computer will also function as a terminal, when
needed: when data retrieving or even when using NON standard
software applications. Why purchase rarely used, expensive
applications - when they are available, for a fraction of the cost,
on the Net?

In other words: no consumer will subjugate his frequent word
processing needs to the whims of the local phone company, or to
those of the site operator. That is why every desktop is still
likely to be include a hard (or optical)-disk-resident word
processing software. But very few will by CAD-CAM, animation,
graphics, or publishing software which they are likely to use
infrequently. Instead, they will access these applications, which
will be resident in the Net, use those parts that are needed. This
is usage tailored to the client's needs. This is also the
integration of a desktop (not of a terminal) with the Net.

Decentralized Lack of Planning

The course adopted by content creators (producers) in the last few
years proves the maxim that it is easy to repeat mistakes and
difficult to derive lessons from them. Content producers are
constantly buying channels to transfer their contents. This is a
mistake. A careful study of the history of successful media ( e.g.,
television) points to a clear pattern:

Content producers do not grant life-long exclusivity to any single
channel. Especially not by buying into it. They prefer to contract
for a limited time with content providers (their broadcast
channels). They work with all of them, sometimes simultaneously.

In the future, the same content will be sold on different sites or
networks, at different times. Sometimes it will be found with a
provider which is a combination of cable TV company and phone
company - at other times, it will be found with a provider with
expertise in computer networks. Much content will be created locally
and distributed globally - and vice versa. The repackaging of
branded contents will be the name of the game in both the media
firms and the firms which control contents distribution (=the
channels).

No exclusivity pact will survive. Networks such as CompuServe are
doomed and have been doomed since 1993. The approach of
decentralized access, through numerous channels, to the same
information - will prevail.


(continued)


Sam Vaknin ( http://samvak.tripod.com ) is the author of Malignant
Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West
Lost the East. He served as a columnist for Global Politician,
Central Europe Review, PopMatters, Bellaonline, and eBookWeb, a
United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and
the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in
The Open Directory and Suite101.

Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government
of Macedonia.

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com