Internet - A Medium or a Message? (Part  IX)

By Sam Vaknin
Author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited"

These essays were published by the Israeli (Hebrew) edition of PC
Magazine back in 1996, when the Internet was in its formative epoch.
I have left them essentially unchanged, except for a few minor
errata I corrected. I find time travel fascinating. It is
interesting to recall the mainstream view, ten years ago, about the
Internet, its goals, its role, and its future. So, here goes:

3. Mail and Chat

The Internet (its e-mail possibilities) is eroding traditional mail.
The market share of the post office in conveying messages by regular
mail has dwindled from 77% to 62% (1995). E-mail has expanded to
capture 36% (up from 19%).

90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to time
and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages
traverse the internet daily.

E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included in
all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated what
used to be a separate service, to the extent that many people make
the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet.
Microsoft continues to incorporate previously independent
applications in its browsers - a behaviour which led to the 1999
anti-trust lawsuit against it.

The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail.
Already there are applications (Intel's, Vocaltec's, Net2Phone)
which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through his
computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut
into each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today,
the parties (two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess
the same software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near
future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate this
requirement. And, again, simultaneous multi-modality: the user can
talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail, receive messages
and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow of the
conversation.

The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that free
voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic will
overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.

This beats regular phones.

The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of the
parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated
by the application (or the user's likeness mapped into the software
and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-
dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns,
special habits, history, preferences - in short: their
own "personality".

Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent
pattern of communication which they will develop over time.

Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors,
all the time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It
could narrate the news, like "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the
future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.

4. E-cash

In 1996, the four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and
Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments
through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom
by a factor of 50 to 25 billion USD. Site owners will be able to
collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided
within the site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect
donations from visitors. Dedicated visitors will not be deterred by
such trifles.

5. The Virtual Organization

The Internet allows simultaneous communication between an almost
unlimited number of users. This is coupled with the efficient
transfer of multimedia (video included) files.

This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are the
real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual collaborative
("Follow the Sun") modes.

Examples:

A group of musicians will be able to compose music or play it -
while spatially and temporally separated;

Advertising agencies will be able to co-produce ad campaigns in a
real time interactive mode;

Cinema and TV films will be produced from disparate geographical
spots through the teamwork of people who never meet, except through
the net.

These examples illustrate the concept of the "virtual community".
Locations in space and time will no longer hinder a collaboration in
a team: be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or for the provision
of services (a virtual law firm or accounting office, a virtual
consultancy network).

Two on going developments are the virtual mall and the virtual
catalogue.

There are well over 300 active virtual malls in the Internet. They
were frequented by 32.5 million shoppers, who shopped in them for
goods and services in 1998. The intranet can also be thought of as
a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".

The virtual mall is a computer "space" (pages) in the internet,
wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using
visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes a gate into the
store and looks through its offering, until he reaches a buying
decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a
credit card), buys the product and waits for it to arrive by mail.
The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as
e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line,
as file downloads.

Yet, slow communications and limited bandwidth - constrain the
growth potential of this mode of sale. Once solved - intellectual
property will be sold directly from the net, on-line. Until such
time, the intervention of the Post Office is still required. So,
then virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail
catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being the
exceptionally varied inventory.

Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming
themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for
instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual
businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many
other products. It started as a bookstore.

This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual
catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to
broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer
audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is
fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is
updated daily: the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect
inventory levels, consumer preferences and goods in transit) - and
prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time.

The user will enter the site and there delineate his consumption
profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue will be
immediately generated for him.

From then on, the history of his purchases, preferences and
responses to feedback questionnaires will be accumulated and added
to a database.

Each catalogue generated for him will come replete with order forms.
Once the user concluded his purchases, his profile will be updated.

There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision
today - only administrative and legal ones. Big retail stores are
not up to processing the flood of data expected to arrive. They also
remain highly sceptical regarding the feasibility of the new medium.
And privacy issues prevent data mining or the effective collection
and usage of personal data.

The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot:
the "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long
memories".

They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest
purchases and refer to the appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual
malls.

They also provide price comparisons and the new generation (NetBot)
cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.

In the future, these agents will refer also to real life retail
chains and issue a map of the branch or store closest to an address
specified by the user (the default being his residence). This
technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and
is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The
owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is
likely to be the target of geographically-specific marketing
campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location
(as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).

6. Internet News

Internet news are advantaged. They can be frequently and dynamically
updated (unlike static print news) and be always accessible (similar
to print news), immediate and fresh.

The future will witness a form of interactive news. A
special "corner" in the site will be open to updates posted by the
public (the equivalent of press releases). This will provide readers
with a glimpse into the making of the news, the raw material news
are made of. The same technology will be applied to interactive TVs.
Content will be downloaded from the internet and be displayed as an
overlay on the TV screen or in a square in a special location. The
contents downloaded will be directly connected to the TV
programming. Thus, the biography and track record of a football
player will be displayed during a football match and the history of
a country when it gets news coveage.



(continued)

Sam Vaknin ( http://samvak.tripod.com ) is the author of Malignant
Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West
Lost the East. He served as a columnist for Global Politician,
Central Europe Review, PopMatters, Bellaonline, and eBookWeb, a
United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and
the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in
The Open Directory and Suite101.

Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government
of Macedonia.

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com