Bird Flu A Ticking Bomb
Author: Velicu George

Although the earliest occurrences of avian influenza date back
to 1997, when an outbreak in Hong Kong was swiftly dealt with
and managed to be contained after causing 6 human deaths, it is
the disease's most recent history, from late 2003 onwards, that
is seen as a very worrying sign for the situation's future
development. After only random cases between 1997 and 2003,
Hong Kong and China reported various cases that signalled the
start of a rapid spread of the virus across Asia. A couple of
years later and the question is still being asked: is avian
influenza a real threat to world health or will this become
just another 'has been' news story? The SARS disease was
another killer thought to have the potential to evolve and
cause major social disruption. However, it was eventually
contained and other headlines have taken its place.

If we are to believe international experts such as the World
Health Organization officials, we are not far away from a flu
pandemic. But this warning exists for a while now and apart
from millions of birds being killed in Asia and some regular
human victims every once in a while, the great 'plague' is yet
to come. The issue is still an avian one, as birds are the
virus' natural host. However the fear is that a possible
mutation of such a virus strain could cause it to easily spread
between humans. There are suspicions that this has already taken
place in the case of an Indonesian family that was decimated by
the virus. Therefore, international authorities show concerns
over the inability of some countries to contain the outbreaks
of the disease among their poultry population. This is the case
with Asian countries, a continent where the illness has caused
the death of tens of millions of birds. Culling of birds in an
infected region is seen as the most effective way of preventing
the spread.

Based on estimates that say that hundreds of millions of people
could succumb to the avian flu disease in the case of a world
wide flu epidemic, governments are racing to prepare for such
an event. Plans are put together, surveillance programs are
trying to detect the earliest signs of a possible bird flu
infection in either wild or domestic birds and flu drugs are
being stockpiled as the only way to treat patients. Although an
effective and proven vaccine for the illness is yet to be found,
several publicly funded or independent companies are doing
research into the virus and how it can be stopped.
Periodically, autumn and winter is seen as a perfect season for
the disease to evolve into a world killer. Migratory birds are
the most common source for the virus and starting September,
their migration is thought to have the potential of taking the
viral agent to new territories.

If we are to look on the other side, there are plenty of
opponents to the bird flu fears. Not just people who look to
the issue with disbelief, but strong supporters of a conspiracy
theory. People such as Dr. Stephan Lanka, a German biologist who
is disputing basic generally agreed facts such as the existence
of viruses itself. It is in the end a matter of personal
opinion how one takes to the matter. But with strong warnings
that this is not something to joke around with, on one hand,
and constant reassurances that the virus has some way to go
before reaching its deadly arm into the Western hemisphere, it
seems one could turn their attention to more stringent matters.


About The Author: George Velicu is the senior editor at
http://www.bird-flu-center.com and the man responsible for
making the website one of the most comprehensive sources for
avian influenza information on the internet. He is also the one
keeping a daily record of bird flu's developments.