The Conference Board(R) The U.K. Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

U.K. Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for October

2005

NEW YORK, Dec. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K decreased 0.3 percent, and the coincident index was unchanged in October.

* The leading index fell in October after increasing for three consecutive

months. With this month's decline, the growth rate of the leading index

has been fluctuating around zero, a slight improvement from the declines

in the April-June period, but the leading index has slowed down from

its 1.0 to 2.0 percent annual growth rate reached in the first quarter

of 2005.

* The coincident index was unchanged in October, and it has been on a flat

to slightly rising trend since mid 2004. In addition, much of the

recent weakness in the coincident index is due to the decreasing

industrial production since May. At the same time, real GDP grew at an

average 1.5 percent annual rate in the first three quarters of 2005,

down from a 2.5 percent average rate in 2004. The behavior of the

leading index in recent months suggests that slower economic growth is

likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the eight components that make up the leading index decreased in October. The negative contributors -- from the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- were order book volume, consumer confidence, volume of expected output, stock prices, and new orders for engineering industries*. Productivity for the whole economy* and the fixed interest price index increased, while operating surplus of corporations* was unchanged in October.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in October, the leading index now stands at 133.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading index declined 0.3 percent, with four of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors -- from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- were employment*, real household disposable income*, and retail sales. Industrial production declined in October.

Holding steady in October, the coincident index now stands at 116.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is the premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board has become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide range of business challenges. The Board's Economics Program, under the direction of Chief Economist Gail Fosler, is a recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.

This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. To subscribe to any of these indexes, please visit http://www.globalindicators.org, contact the Customer Services at 212-339-0345, or email indicators@conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2005 6-month

Aug. Sep. Oct. Apr.-Oct.

Leading Index 133.7 r 134.0 p 133.6 p

Percent Change +0.3 r +0.2 p -0.3 p -0.3 p

Diffusion 75.0 43.8 31.3 50.0

Coincident Index 116.2 r 116.4 p 116.4 p

Percent Change +0.1 r +0.2 p 0.0 p + 0.7 p

Diffusion 75.0 100.0 75.0 75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 1990 Source: The Conference Board

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http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for January 13, 2005 at 10:30 A.M. ET

In the U.K. -- January 13, 2005 at 3:30 P.M. (GMT) SOURCE The Conference Board