The Concert of Europe, Interrupted

By Sam Vaknin
Author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited"

"(Plan for establishing) an economic organization ... through mutual
customs agreements ... including France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark,
Austria, Poland, and perhaps Italy, Sweden, and Norway".
The German "September Plan" to impose an economic union on the
vanquished nations of Europe following a military victory, 1914


Europe spent the first half of the 19th century (following the 1815
Congress of Vienna) containing France. The trauma of the Napoleonic
wars was the last in a medley of conflicts with an increasingly
menacing France stretching back to the times of Louis XIV. The
Concert of Europe was specifically designed to reflect the interests
of the Big Powers, establish their borders of expansion in Europe,
and create a continental "balance of deterrence". For a few decades
it proved to be a success.

The rise of a unified, industrially mighty and narcissistic Germany
erased most of these achievements. By closely monitoring France, the
Big Powers were fighting the last war - instead of the three next
ones. Following two ineffably ruinous world wars, Europe now shifted
its geopolitical sights from France to Germany. In an effort to
prevent a repeat of Hitler, the Big Powers of the West, led by
France, established an "ever closer" European Union. Germany was
(inadvertently) split and sandwiched and, thus, restrained. To its
East, it faced a military-economic union (the Warsaw Pact) cum
eastern empire (the late USSR). To its West, it was surrounded by a
military union (NATO) cum emerging Western economic supranational
structure (the EU). The Cold War was fought all over the world - but
in Europe it was about Germany.

The collapse of the eastern flank (the Soviet - "evil" - Empire) of
this implicit anti-German containment geo-strategy led to the re-
emergence of a united Germany. Furthermore, Germany is in the
process of obtaining hegemony over the EU by applying the political
weight commensurate with its economic and demographic might. It is a
natural and historical leader of central Europe - the EU's and
NATO's future lebensraum and the target of their expansionary
predilections ("integration"). Thus, virtually overnight, Germany
came to dominate the Western component of the anti-German
containment master plan - while the Eastern component has
chaotically disintegrated.

The EU - notably France - is reacting by trying to assume the role
formerly played by the USSR. EU integration is an attempt to
assimilate former Soviet satellites and dilute Germany's power by re-
jigging rules of voting and representation. If successful, this
strategy will prevent Germany from bidding yet again for a position
of hegemony in Europe by establishing a "German Union" separate from
the EU. It is all still the same tiresome and antiquated game of
continental Big Powers. Even Britain maintains its Victorian
position of "splendid isolation".

The exclusion of both Turkey and Russia from these re-alignments is
also a direct descendant of the politics of the last two centuries.
Both are likely to gradually drift away from European (and Western)
structures and seek their fortunes in the geopolitical twilight
zones of the world. The USA is unlikely to be of much help to Europe
as it reasserts the Monroe doctrine and attends to its growing
Pacific preoccupations. It will assist the EU to cope with Russian
(and to a lesser extent, Turkish) designs in the tremulously
tectonic regions of the Caucasus, oil-rich and China-bordering
Central Asia, and the Middle East. But it will not do so in Central
Europe, in the Baltic, and in the Balkan.

Of these three spots, the Balkan is by far the most ominous. Russia -
as it has proved in 1877-8 - has historical claims there which it
is willing to back militarily. Many of the nations of the Balkan are
far closer to Russia than to the West and tend to regard the latter
with suspicion and hostility. Turkey, if it so chooses, can easily
assume the role of the protector of Balkan Moslems - sure to provoke
Greek ire. A military conflict among two NATO members will
constitute a body blow to the credibility and prestige of this
alliance in search of an enemy. Moreover, Turkey is the prefect
staging ground for operations in the Middle East, Central Asia and
China. It constitutes a vital American interest and the pivot of
NATO's southern flank. But it is derided by the EU, its NATO
membership notwithstanding.

It is here, in the Balkan, that the New World Order and the End of
History hypothesis are being tested. A new European balance of the
Big Powers will emerge here. But hitherto, alas, this particular
concert of Europe has been quite a cacophony.


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AUTHOR BIO (must be included with the article)



Sam Vaknin ( http://samvak.tripod.com ) is the author of Malignant
Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West
Lost the East. He served as a columnist for Global Politician,
Central Europe Review, PopMatters, Bellaonline, and eBookWeb, a
United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and
the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in
The Open Directory and Suite101.

Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government
of Macedonia.

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com